Finland’s foreign minister says Ukraine ‘is now holding the cards’ as Russia signals talks

EXCLUSIVE: Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen said Ukraine has gained new leverage against Russia, arguing that Moscow’s renewed talk of negotiations comes as Kyiv has strengthened itself militarily, politically and diplomatically.

Valtonen’s comments carry particular weight because Finland is one of NATO’s newest members and now sits on the alliance’s longest border with Russia. Finland joined NATO in April 2023 after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, ending decades of military nonalignment and transforming the country into a frontline state in Europe’s security posture.

“Ukraine certainly is now holding the cards,” Valtonen told Fox News Digital Monday in an interview at the United Nations headquarters in New York. “They have strengthened themselves immensely over the course of the past three, four months, both militarily and politically, diplomatically. And I think this opens a great window of opportunity for actually advancing the peace talks.”

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Her assessment comes as Reuters reported that Ukraine’s top military commander said Ukrainian forces had recaptured more than 600 square kilometers, or roughly 230 square miles, of territory so far in 2026, a shift after years of slow Russian gains. It also follows renewed diplomatic activity, including Zelenskyy’s stated willingness to halt fighting along current lines as a path to talks and Putin’s public rejection of a direct meeting for now.

Finland shares a roughly 820-mile border with Russia, making it one of the alliance’s most strategically exposed members.

Valtonen said Moscow has shown little willingness to make concessions and argued that the responsibility for ending the war remains with the Kremlin.

“So far, Russia hasn’t been willing to make any concessions, and essentially Russia could end the war today if they wanted to, because it was their war in the first place,” she said. “So I’m hopeful that this could be the right time to relaunch those talks.”

Peace efforts remain stalled over the same core divide that has shaped the war for years: Ukraine has called for a ceasefire and negotiations without surrendering territory, while Russia has continued to demand control over occupied Ukrainian regions. Putin said in early June there was “no point” in meeting Zelenskyy for now and repeated Moscow’s broader war aims.

Asked about U.S.-led efforts to negotiate an end to the war, Valtonen praised Washington’s role but stressed that Ukraine alone must decide whether to accept any concessions, including on territory.

“I think the U.S. involvement in this entire process has been a very good one, and it’s important that the U.S. stays engaged, because at the end of the day, it’s about freedom, it’s the future of not only Europe, but also of global peace,” she said.

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Valtonen said Europe also needs to be part of the process because Russia’s war directly affects the continent’s security architecture.

She said any serious negotiations would require Russia to accept a full ceasefire.

“First and foremost, we would need Russia at the table willing to end the war,” Valtonen said. “And that would need to happen through a full ceasefire, because only that would open the possibility for true negotiations.”

Valtonen also credited President Donald Trump with pushing European allies to increase defense spending, saying the pressure had moved the continent in the right direction after years of imbalance inside NATO.

Finland has moved aggressively to increase defense spending. Helsinki plans to raise defense spending to 3.2% of GDP by 2030, up from 2.5% in 2025, Reuters reported in April. 

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio also praised Finland and Sweden Tuesday during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, saying the two newest NATO members had strengthened the alliance by bringing “their own defense industry” and “advanced technologies.” 

He called them “a great partner” and “an extraordinary partner.”

Valtonen said Finland’s approach is shaped by its own history with Moscow.

“Finland obviously has taken the Russian threat extremely seriously because we have the longest border with them,” she said. “We certainly worship our status as the happiest country in the world, i.e. democracy, the rule of law and human rights, which we hold dear as values over anything that Russia could offer.”

She also pointed to Finland’s experience in World War II, when the Soviet Union invaded Finland, as a reminder of why deterrence matters.

“The last time the Soviet Union, i.e. Russia, tried to invade us was during the Second World War,” Valtonen said. “Happily, we were able to fend them off, but of course at the massive cost to the society.”

“For us, it has been clear that if we invest in our deterrence, then that’s a signal to Russia — do not come here,” she added.

On Iran, Valtonen said Finnish President Alexander Stubb’s March comments, reported by The Guardian, that the conflict was not a NATO matter should not be understood as Europe washing its hands of the crisis.

“I don’t think our president meant that this has nothing to do with European countries or NATO allies,” Valtonen said. “I think what he probably meant more is that NATO obviously is not directly involved as an organization, which is true.”

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Her comments came after another weekend escalation in the Iran war, with Tehran launching missiles at Israel and Israel striking military targets in western and central Iran overnight. The flare-up unfolded as the U.S. and its allies continue efforts to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear state and keep pressure on Tehran over threats to Israel and regional shipping.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy choke point, has become a central focus for Western governments after Iranian threats and restrictions on maritime traffic. Reuters reported Monday that the European Union sanctioned Iranian-linked individuals and an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy unit over threats to shipping in the strait.

“We as individual member states in Europe have definitely been helping the U.S. effort,” Valtonen said. “We don’t want to see Iran as a nuclear state. We know what kind of a threat Iran has projected towards the region, especially toward Israel.”

Valtonen added Finland has also joined efforts led by France and the United Kingdom to keep the Strait of Hormuz open once conditions allow for safe operations in the area.

“It’s so important that such straits are not weaponized by any country around the world,” Valtonen said.

Asked whether European countries had refused U.S. requests to use bases during the Iran crisis, Valtonen said Finland has no U.S. bases to shut down but argued that most European allies have supported Washington’s requests.

“Finland has been helping the U.S. through so many ways,” she said. “We don’t have any U.S. bases in Finland, so there’s nothing we can shut down.”

“But having said this, the vast majority of European countries have said yes to everything that the U.S. has asked during the past couple of months when this war effort has been ongoing, independent of the fact that, of course, we are not directly involved as countries in the war,” she added.

Valtonen said that support demonstrated NATO allies’ willingness to help Washington even when the alliance itself is not formally involved.

“I think that really shows the engagement by NATO allies in this and our willingness to help when the U.S. really needs some assistance,” she said.