I had just one play on the diamond yesterday, and it was a no-doubt, no-sweat victory. This was mostly thanks to Edward Cabrera of the Cubs allowing seven runs in the first inning of the game. When you have a total of just 8.5 for the day, giving up seven in the first makes for a pretty comfortable rest of the game. The teams combined for 15 runs yesterday, and we cashed our ticket quickly. Tonight might not be as quick, but let’s get a ticket cashed comfortably today as the Padres play against the Mets.
The San Diego Padres are a team that I invested in around the All-Star Break, and they are starting to look like the investment has paid off. They are nine games above .500 and are sitting in second place in the NL West. They won’t catch the Dodgers for the division, but if they keep this up, they should make the postseason without too much difficulty. They have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the past 24 days. Since July 24th, they have gone 17-5.
Tonight they look to keep that run alive by sending Walker Buehler to the hill. Buehler has been fine this season with a 7-5 record and a 4.88 ERA. He also has contributed 100 strikeouts and has a 1.43 WHIP. Buehler has struggled on the road with an ERA that is a full run higher than his homework. Buehler is a very frustrating pitcher because there are some stretches where you see just how good he can be — for example, in June he allowed five earned runs in five starts spanning 26.1 innings. Then in July, he allowed 16 earned runs in nine innings of work. He has been in one of his better stretches in August, allowing just five earned runs over 14.1 innings covering three starts. Mets hitters are batting .211 against him over 38 at-bats.
The New York Mets are one of the more frustrating teams in baseball. I’m not a Mets fan, but it is hard to make sense of why the team falls apart. If you look at their roster on paper, you have to assume they would be a winning club. I suppose looking at the pitching staff would give you pause, but they’ve seen success with guys in the rotation in the past. Their stats are not that much worse than the Padres, but in terms of wins, they are 13 games under .500.
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In order to try and take this series opener from the Padres, the Mets send Nolan McLean to the hill. He has been one of their better pitchers this season with an 8-8 record, 3.42 ERA, and a 1.13 WHIP. He has also struck out 159 hitters in 136.2 innings of work. He has been worse in New York than on the road, with a 4.19 home ERA. He also has allowed double the number of homers. He has been strong over the past month or so. In his past eight starts, he has seven quality outings and allowed more than two earned runs in just two of them. Padres hitters are also batting just .176 against him in 18 at-bats.
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While both of these starters have been inconsistent at times in the season, they both seem to be in decent form at the moment. Neither team is really known for its offense this season, either. The Padres are certainly the hotter team at the moment. Now is the right time to back them. Buehler hasn’t been great on the road, or overall, but I think we take the team that is on the hot streak and at plus money. Give me the Padres to win this one.
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