Conor McGregor returns to the Octagon for the first time in five years when he headlines UFC 329 against Max Holloway in a rematch more than a decade in the making.
While the spotlight belongs to McGregor, the biggest box office star in combat sports, UFC 329’s main card at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is loaded with intriguing betting opportunities from top to bottom.
8 INDICTED IN PLANNED SNIPER ATTACK AT WHITE HOUSE UFC 250 EVENT, DOJ SAYS
Before we dive into this wild main card, a quick disclaimer: I am not a mixed martial arts betting sharp. I just love fight night and want to have action on the fights. Let’s risk some beer money together. Here are my favorite best bets for Saturday’s blockbuster card in Sin City.
These odds are courtesy of DraftKings as of Saturday, July 11, at 1:30 p.m. ET and are subject to change.
- Max Holloway by KO/TKO/DQ (-135)
- Paddy Pimblett’s moneyline (+110)
- Cory Sandhagen to win by decision (+165)
- UNDER 2.5 rounds in Royval-Kavanagh (+135)
- Terrance McKinney’s moneyline (-108)
UFC Welterweight Fight: Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway
I’d wait closer to fight time before making a bet, which is about 11:15 p.m. ET Sunday, because Conor (22-6) will most likely get bet down once more UFC and McGregor fans get to Las Vegas, giving us a better number for Holloway (27-9).
Combat sports are different than team sports because the public likes to bet on underdogs in combat sports instead of favorites, like in team sports, so the sportsbooks need the favorites in UFC and boxing. For instance, even though he is undefeated, the sportsbooks always had more liability on Floyd Mayweather Jr.’s opponent in their fights.
Also, this line is sketchy considering Conor beat Holloway by unanimous decision in their only other meeting back in 2013, and Holloway has lost two of his last three fights entering UFC 329. Yet, McGregor hasn’t fought in five years, and Holloway has been in the octagon eight times over that span, including five title bouts.
Holloway’s lone win over his last three bouts is over Dustin Poirier, who beat Conor by TKO in his last two fights entering this event. Finally, Holloway averages more significant strikes landed per minute in his UFC matches and absorbs fewer significant strikes.
Lightweight Bout: Benoît Saint Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett (+110)
Pimblett (23-4) ranks sixth in this division, making him underrated. Plus, Paddy The Baddy’s loss to Justin Gaethje by unanimous decision for the interim lightweight title at UFC 324 has aged well. Gaethje went on to upset Ilia Topuria, who is one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport, at UFC Freedom 250 to unify the Lightweight Championship.
DANA WHITE SAYS DONALD TRUMP WOULDN’T STOP PUSHING TO MAKE THE WHITE HOUSE UFC EVENT BIGGER
Obviously, every fight takes a life of its own. But not even Topuria could go the distance with Gaethje, and Paddy The Baddy did. At least, that’s one way to look at it. His loss to Gaethje snapped a nine-fight win streak, including all seven of Pimblett’s career appearances in the octagon.
Meanwhile, Saint Denis (17-3) is on a four-fight winning streak, but he has three career losses in the octagon and has never fought for a title in the UFC. BSD’s opponent two fights back, Beneil Dariush at UFC 322, failed to make weight, and they fought at a catchweight.
Granted, Saint Denis won by knockout in the first round, but Dariush missing weight proves he wasn’t as locked in as Pimblett will be Saturday. With that in mind, Paddy The Baddy at plus-money is good value. He’s been in wars and has gone the distance in three of his last five fights, while BSD has never gone the distance in the octagon, so Pimblett should have the edge late in the third round.
Bantamweight Match: Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista
This is a rematch of a 2019 fight that Sandhagen (18-6) won by first-round submission. Bautista (17-3) comes in with better form, having won nine of his last 10 fights, including his most recent, a first-round rear-naked choke over Vinicius Oliveira in February.
Sandhagen has lost two of his last three bouts, but those were to Merab Dvalishvili and Umar Nurmagomedov, the first- and second-ranked fighters in that division. Nurmagomedov also beat Bautista at UFC 321 in November 2025. Sandhagen is more experienced in major bouts.
He has two bantamweight championship fights and two title eliminator matches for that belt, while Bautista has never fought for a title. Four of Sandhagen’s five losses in the octagon have been either against former bantamweight champions or the current champion, Petr Yan.
Sandhagen has an edge in striking and has never been knocked out, and Bautista hasn’t knocked anyone out since UFC 259 in 2021. Hence, if this goes the distance, give me Sandhagen’s big-fight experience at this reasonable price.
Flyweight Fight: UNDER 2.5 Rounds in Brandon Royval vs. Lone’er Kavanagh
Royval (17-9) has a history of exciting fights. Twenty of Royval’s 26 career matches have ended by either knockout or submission. Four of his last seven bouts have been either “Fight” or “Performance of the Night”. In fact, Royval’s loss to Joshua Van for the flyweight strap at UFC 317 in December won “Fight of the Year”.
Kavanagh (10-1) is a former five-time K-1 kickboxing champion, and Royval has nine submission wins. So, I’m envisioning Royval trying to get this to the mat, leaving himself vulnerable, and Kavanagh, the -218 betting favorite, taking advantage of that with his precision striking.
Lightweight Bout: King Green vs. Terrance McKinney (-108)
I’m going to “fade the market,” which has bet Green from an underdog on the opener to a slight favorite at the time of writing. Green (35-17-1 and one no contest) is a veteran whom the UFC fans are more familiar with, and he has more than twice as many career fights as McKinney (18-8).
Maybe that line movement is sharp, but again, MMA and boxing fans love to bet the underdog. The market’s logic is that Green’s experience will help him overcome McKinney’s early-round barrage.
None of McKinney’s 26 career matches have gone the distance, and his last seven fights have ended in the first round. Nevertheless, McKinney’s striking stats are slightly better, and he has nine wins by submission in his career.
_____________________________
Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my “OutKick Bets Podcast” for more betting content and random rants.
Read the full article here
