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A surge in Somali piracy is fueling fears of a Red Sea “security vacuum” across the region as analysts warn of a revived maritime crime playbook, now linked to Iran-backed Houthis.
The warning follows a May 2 report from Yemen’s coast guard that armed men hijacked an oil tanker off Shabwa and steered it toward the Gulf of Aden, and the vessel has since been located with recovery efforts underway, Reuters reported.
“There is a fundamental shift in the maritime center of gravity amid a new phase of maritime instability in the region,” Ido Shalev, chief operating officer at RTCOM Defense, told Fox News Digital.
“Somali and Houthi-linked groups are teaming up — using skiffs and new tech to strike ships with coordination not seen in a decade — while Saudi crude rerouted from the Strait of Hormuz has created a ‘target-rich environment for them,’” he added.
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“There is an opportunistic alignment, with the Houthis providing geopolitical cover and advanced GPS and surveillance, and Somali groups providing the boots on the ground or skiffs on the water,” Shalev said.
With the MT Eureka taken off Shabwa, Shalev, a former Israeli naval officer, suggested what he called the “Somali model” had returned “with a vengeance.”
“This is a transactional collaboration, and in the exact area where the Houthis are active and would like to cause damage and support their IRGC sponsor,” he said before describing how pirates would hijack the entire ship and cargo, taking them to a secure anchorage “like Qandala or Garacad.”
“They then demand a ransom for the entire package: the vessel, the tens of millions of dollars in oil, and the crew,” he said.
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The surge in regional risk is also exacerbated, Shalev said, by the volatility of the Strait of Hormuz. As Iranian-backed threats persist in the Persian Gulf, global energy flows are shifting.
“Due to the closure and instability of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has diverted millions of barrels of crude per day through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu,” the former Israeli naval officer said.
“This creates a target-rich environment in a sector that was previously a backbound route. With Brent Crude prices surging — peaking near $115/bbl this quarter — the prize for a successful hijacking has never been higher.”
The risk level in waters off Somalia was recently upgraded to “substantial” following a wave of hijackings and attempted attacks that began April 21, according to Windward AI and alerts from the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).
At least three vessels were hijacked within days: a Somali-flagged fishing boat on April 21, followed by the Palau-flagged tanker Honour 25 (IMO 1099735), and, by April 26, a general cargo ship seized and redirected to Garacad.
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Shalev, who served as the lead architect for Nigeria’s “Falcon Eye” project — a surveillance system that successfully reduced piracy in those waters to 0% — warned that the distraction of global warships is being exploited.
“Because international naval forces are preoccupied with missile threats, a ‘security vacuum’ has now opened in the region, so pirates can travel vast distances in skiffs to board vulnerable commercial vessels,” he said.
“Somali piracy, which had been suppressed for years, has seen this sharp resurgence that also correlates perfectly with the Houthi crisis in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden,” Shalev said.
The Red Sea carries 12% to 15% of global trade and about 30% of container traffic, moving over $1 trillion in goods annually, including oil and LNG, according to reports.
“The current crisis proves that you cannot ‘patrol’ your way out of this; you have to see the threat before it ever reaches the ship,” Shalev said.
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