This article was originally published by Willow Tohi at Natural News.
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- Russian wheat exports to Kenya rose 10% year-on-year, reaching 1.4 million tons by late May 2026
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- Russia now controls 40% of Africa’s wheat import market, with exports to Sudan surging 143%
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- Ukraine opened its first agricultural processing hub in Ghana on April 14, 2026, as part of its “Food from Ukraine” initiative
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- Ethiopia remains heavily dependent on Black Sea wheat, with Russia supplying 68% of its imports
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- Russia’s total agricultural exports to Africa exceeded $5 billion in 2025 and could surpass $7.5 billion by 2030
The competition for Africa’s breadbasket
Russia and Ukraine are locked in an escalating competition for Africa’s wheat market, with Moscow solidifying its dominance while Kyiv expands its footprint through new strategic partnerships. Russian wheat shipments to Kenya climbed 10% year-on-year this season to approximately 1.4 million tons by late May 2026, according to Russia’s agriculture export agency Agroexport. The figure already surpasses the roughly 1.3 million tons delivered during the entire previous season, trailing only the record 1.7 million tons shipped in the 2023/24 season.
This surge reflects a broader Russian strategy to cement its position as Africa’s primary grain supplier. Moscow now controls a record 40% of the continent’s wheat import market.
Russian gains across the continent
Russian wheat exports to Egypt rose 19% this year, while supplies to Sudan jumped 78%. Agroexport reported that Sudan received 1.7 million tons since the start of the 2025/26 season, up from 0.7 million tons a year earlier, driven by the restart of several Sudanese mills. Exports to Nigeria increased fivefold year-on-year, shipments to Morocco doubled and exports to Mozambique surged nearly twelvefold. Russia also resumed grain exports to Togo for the first time since 2022.
Egypt alone accounted for a record 21% of Russia’s wheat exports in the 2024/25 season, exceeding 9.4 million tons.
Russia’s agricultural exports to Africa have increased by 22% over the past five years, exceeding $5 billion in 2025, according to Agroexport adviser Alexander Yakuba. The agency projects exports could surpass $7.5 billion by 2030, driven by shipments of grain, vegetable oils, livestock products, processed foods and fish.
Ukraine’s strategic response
Ukraine, the world’s fifth-largest wheat exporter, opened its first food processing and distribution center in Ghana on April 14 as part of its “Food from Ukraine” initiative. Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko said the hub, which will process Ukrainian wheat into local products such as pasta and rice, is designed to combine humanitarian support with long-term commercial partnerships.
Since 2022, Ukraine has delivered more than 324,000 tons of agricultural products, including wheat, flour and sunflower oil to 19 countries, including Ethiopia, Somalia and Nigeria. The African market purchased $2.8 billion worth of agricultural goods from Ukraine last year. However, Ukrainian officials noted that only 12% of the country’s agricultural exports currently go to Africa, leaving substantial room for growth.
Ethiopia: A case study in dependency
Ethiopia remains heavily dependent on Black Sea wheat imports. Russia supplies 68% of Ethiopia’s wheat imports, followed by Ukraine and Romania. Together, the three Black Sea nations supplied 93% of Ethiopia’s wheat imports, according to a USDA report.
Ethiopia’s wheat production is forecast to reach a record 7.0 million metric tons in the 2026/27 marketing year, an 8% increase driven by expanded irrigation, improved seed adoption and mechanization. However, domestic consumption is projected at 8.2 million metric tons, leaving a deficit of 1.4 million metric tons that must be covered by commercial imports.
Despite record harvests, Ethiopian consumers face rising wheat prices. Between February 2025 and February 2026, wheat prices surged 28%, from 6,450 birr to 8,250 birr per 100 kilograms, driven by currency depreciation, rising fuel costs and expensive agricultural inputs.
The geopolitical implications
This competition carries significant strategic implications. Russia’s growing agricultural dominance in Africa complements its broader diplomatic and military engagement across the continent. Moscow has opened new embassies, expanded educational exchanges and deepened cooperation with African nations through BRICS and bilateral agreements.
Analysts at railway operator Rusagrotrans noted that the leading importers of Russian wheat are MENA countries, “where it is difficult to compete with Russia due to its logistical proximity to these markets.”
The intensifying rivalry reflects a fundamental shift in global agricultural trade patterns. As Russia leverages its geographic advantages and existing infrastructure, Ukraine seeks to establish permanent footholds through processing hubs and humanitarian partnerships. The outcome of this competition will help determine food security for millions of Africans and reshape trade relationships across the continent for years to come.
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