The average sports bettor tends to have some really hot stretches or some really cold ones. It is typically how you respond to those streaks that allows you to build or bust your bankroll. I’ve been on a mini-hot streak with these posts lately, and I’m looking to keep it going. We get a matinee game between the Pirates and Diamondbacks that I hope to extend the roll.
The Pittsburgh Pirates were considered one of the teams that would make a major impact this season. They were supposed to take a big step forward after finally shelling out a bit of money in the offseason. It wasn’t like they grabbed a major player, but they did make the team better with some of their additions. So far, it has paid off with the Pirates having a winning record at 20-17, and they are also hitting and scoring significantly better than last season. It is obviously early, but last season the team was hitting .231 for the year and averaged 3.6 runs scored per game.
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This season, the Pirates are hitting .247 and are averaging 4.9 runs per game. In fact, they’ve already scored 31% of the runs they scored last year in less than a quarter of the games. Today, they have Mitch Keller on the hill with a 3-1 record, 2.85 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. Those are All-Star-caliber numbers, and much needed from their second-best starter. He has only made two starts on the road, and has allowed three earned runs on eight hits over 11 innings in those outings. Diamondbacks hitters have struggled against him, going 16-for-85 against him.
It may be hard to believe, but the Arizona Diamondbacks are just a few seasons removed from an appearance in the World Series. They are just 17-18 for the season with a 10-7 record at home, but this is about what you should expect out of the club. The Diamondbacks have plenty of hitting, even after trading away two of their better hitters last year. However, the pitching staff is a bit of a struggle.
Specifically, Zac Gallen, today’s starter, is one of those guys who led them to the World Series. Last season, I felt like he was struggling because of the trade rumors that circulated around him. He ended up coming back to the team. The problem is that Gallen hasn’t really improved. He is 1-2 with a 4.45 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP. He has been significantly better at home this year, and even in most of the previous years. He has a 1.23 ERA at home in 14.2 innings. He has only one quality start in the three outings. Pirates hitters are batting .248 against him over 101 at-bats.
There are two player props you might want to consider for today. I’ll share these before my official play. Most of the time with player props, I like to sprinkle bets on them rather than put full units. Nolan Arenado has struggled (4-for-27) against Keller, so under 0.5 hits at +140 is appealing. Ryan O’Hearn for the Pirates is 6-for-12 against Gallen with three extra-base hits. I like him at 2+ total bases at +122.
For the official play on the game, I like the under 9 runs. Keller has been locked in this season. Gallen is a different pitcher at home. The Pirates have scored a total of one run in two games, and the Diamondbacks scored zero yesterday, but nine in the first game. Give me the under 9 for this one.
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