The 2026 Western Conference Finals’ series-opening instant classic is a hard act to follow. But the San Antonio (1-0) and Oklahoma City Thunder (0-1) will try in Game 2 Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Thanks to a game for the ages by Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio upset Oklahoma City 122-115 in double overtime in Game 1. Wembanyama had game-highs in points (41), rebounds (24) and blocks (3) and banged an absurd 27-foot game-tying 3-pointer to force double overtime.
Wemby and the Spurs did a phenomenal job defending Thunder big Chet Holmgren and reigning two-time NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Monday. Holmgren was held to 8 points on 28.6% shooting (2-for-7) and SGA scored 24 points on 30.4% shooting (7-for-23).
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Even though they trailed for 81% of Game 1, the Thunder are still a -7/-7.5 favorite for Game 2. Usually, this is a get-right game for the big favorite. There is a profitable NBA postseason system where big favorites roll in Game 2 after losing the series opener.
However, I’m fading that noise because I’ll bet Wembanyama’s teams if they are ever +4 underdogs or greater for the next 10 or more years.
Best Bet: San Antonio Spurs +7.5 (-115)
Part of the reason big favorites bounce back and win Game 2 is that the underdog stole the series opener due to an unsustainable performance. That’s not the case for San Antonio, though.
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The Spurs won three of the “four factors” in Game 1: Effective field goal rate, which blends 2- and 3-point shooting, rebounding and the free-throw battle.
San Antonio’s edges in rebounding and free throws are especially troubling for OKC. The Spurs grabbed 21 more rebounds in Game 1 and got to the foul line 10 more times.
Now, people might say that’s due for regression, but not necessarily. San Antonio led the NBA in defensive rebounding and FT/FGA rate during the regular season. With Wemby out there, the Spurs will always grab rebounds and don’t have to gamble on defense.
Also, if there was an outlier performance in Game 1, it was Thunder wing Alex Caruso’s team-high 31 points on 11-for-19 shooting. Ultimately, the Spurs will allow him to chuck threes since any Caruso jumper is a good defensive possession for them.
Moreover, as a team, the Thunder were only 13th in offensive FT/FGA rate this season and 22nd in total rebounding rate. Shai is a “free-throw merchant,” but Oklahoma City isn’t.
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Lastly, the market expects the Thunder to make proper adjustments in Game 2, but their depth is overrated in this matchup. San Antonio goes nine-deep, including 2025-26 NBA Sixth Man of the Year, Keldon Johnson, which is enough for the playoffs.
Prediction: Thunder 108, Spurs 104
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