It was a solid day yesterday as we went 2-1 with my posted plays. The loss came in the Brewers vs. Cubs game. Chicago lost the game 5-0, and I had the over 6.5. I leaned toward the Brewers winning, but I didn’t get there personally. Today, we will get there all the way as the Braves take on the Marlins in an evening matchup.
The Atlanta Braves are among the best teams in baseball. This team struggled last year, mostly due to injury, but they finished in fourth place of the division. I think everyone expected that they might take a step back last season, but that was a pretty big drop. This year, the team is healthier and looks like they may run away with the National League East. They’ve been strong road warriors this season as well with an 18-8 record.
In an effort to take three out of four games in this series, the team turns to Spencer Strider. It hasn’t been a long season for Strider, but his numbers look strong with a 1-0 record, 2.45 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. My bigger concern about Strider is that he’s allowed 10 walks this year in just 14.2 innings. Five of them came in his first game back, but he is still giving up too many, in my opinion. The good news for him is that the Marlins are 19th in the league in walks. Collectively, the Marlins are hitting just 1-for-12 against Strider.
The Miami Marlins finished ahead of the Braves last season, but I don’t see that happening again this year. Miami is one of those franchises that seems to be in a never-ending rebuild. The only difference is that the Marlins do occasionally have success. They just trade away any valuable asset before they have to shell out a contract. The fish are currently 22-28 for the year, but they do have a winning record at home (albeit a slight one at 15-14).
Tonight, they get one of their trade chips taking the mound. Sandy Alcantara, especially if he can regain his Cy Young form, is a guy that Miami will likely be shopping around the deadline. Overall, Alcantara is 3-2 for the season with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. In 10 starts, he has turned in eight quality starts. The two bad starts were really bad. He allowed seven earned runs in both of them. For the season, he has two starts where he has allowed 14 earned runs, and eight where he has allowed 11. Braves hitters have been strong against Alcantara.
There are a couple of guys worth considering for player props. Ronald Acuna Jr. is hitting .342 against Alcantara, with half of those hits going for extra bases. Ozzie Albies is 15-for-48 with eight extra-base hits. Austin Riley is on the other end, with 15 strikeouts in 35 at-bats. I like taking Riley at 2+ strikeouts at +238. I also think the other two at 2+ total bases and plus money. Those are worth a sprinkle or same-game parlay.
Based on their history and current form, I think the Braves are the right play in this one. They are a little pricier than I would like to pay at -140, but I think with the Braves’ history against Alcantara, we have a good chance to get the win. I’ll take the Braves and Riley’s player prop.
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