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President Donald Trump warned that Iran is working to build missiles that could “soon reach the United States of America,” elevating concerns about a weapons program that already places U.S. forces across the Middle East within range.
Iran does not currently possess a missile capable of striking the U.S. homeland, officials say. But its existing ballistic missile arsenal can target major American military installations in the Gulf, and U.S. officials say the issue has emerged as a key sticking point in ongoing nuclear negotiations.
Here’s what Iran can hit now — and how close it is to reaching the U.S.
What Iran can hit right now
Iran is widely assessed by Western defense analysts to operate the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East. Its arsenal consists primarily of short- and medium-range ballistic missiles with ranges of up to roughly 2,000 kilometers — about 1,200 miles.
That range places a broad network of U.S. military infrastructure across the Gulf within reach.
Among the installations inside that envelope:
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- Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, forward headquarters for U.S. Central Command
- Naval Support Activity Bahrain, home to the U.S. 5th Fleet
- Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, a major Army logistics and command hub
- Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, used by U.S. Air Force units
- Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia
- Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates
- Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, which hosts U.S. aircraft
U.S. forces have drawn down from some regional positions in recent months, including the transfer of Al Asad Air Base in Iraq back to Iraqi control earlier this year. But major Gulf installations remain within the range envelope of Iran’s current missile inventory.
Multiple U.S. officials told Fox News this week that staffing at the Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain has been reduced to “mission critical” levels amid heightened tensions. A separate U.S. official disputed that characterization, saying no ordered departure of personnel or dependents has been issued.
At the same time, the U.S. has surged significant naval and air assets into and around the region in recent days. The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is operating in the Arabian Sea alongside multiple destroyers, while additional destroyers are positioned in the eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea and Persian Gulf. The USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group is also headed toward the region. U.S. Air Force fighter aircraft — including F-15s, F-16s, F-35s and A-10s — are based across Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, supported by aerial refueling tankers, early warning aircraft and surveillance platforms, according to a recent Fox News military briefing.
Iran has demonstrated its willingness to use ballistic missiles against U.S. targets before.
In January 2020, following the U.S. strike that killed Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Gen. Qassem Soleimani, Iran launched more than a dozen ballistic missiles at U.S. positions in Iraq. Dozens of American service members were later diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries.
That episode underscored the vulnerability of forward-deployed forces within reach of Iran’s missile arsenal.
Can Iran reach Europe?
Most publicly known Iranian missile systems are assessed to have maximum ranges of around 2,000 kilometers.
Depending on launch location, that could place parts of southeastern Europe — including Greece, Bulgaria and Romania — within potential reach. The U.S. has some 80,000 troops stationed across Europe, including in all three of these countries.
Reaching deeper into Europe would require longer-range systems than Iran has publicly demonstrated as operational.
Can Iran hit the US?
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Iran does not currently field an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of striking the U.S. homeland.
To reach the U.S. East Coast, a missile would need a range of roughly 10,000 kilometers — far beyond Iran’s known operational capability.
However, U.S. intelligence agencies have warned that Iran’s space launch vehicle program could provide the technological foundation for a future long-range missile.
In a recent threat overview, the Defense Intelligence Agency stated that Iran “has space launch vehicles it could use to develop a militarily-viable ICBM by 2035 should Tehran decide to pursue the capability.”
That assessment places any potential Iranian intercontinental missile capability roughly a decade away — and contingent on a political decision by Tehran.
U.S. officials and defense analysts have pointed in particular to Iran’s recent space launches, including rockets such as the Zuljanah, which use solid-fuel propulsion. Solid-fuel motors can be stored and launched more quickly than liquid-fueled rockets — a feature that is also important for military ballistic missiles.
Space launch vehicles and long-range ballistic missiles rely on similar multi-stage rocket technology. Analysts say advances in Iran’s space program could shorten the pathway to an intercontinental-range missile if Tehran chose to adapt that technology for military use.
For now, however, Iran has not deployed an operational ICBM, and the U.S. homeland remains outside the reach of its current ballistic missile arsenal.
US missile defenses — capable but finite
The U.S. relies on layered missile defense systems — including THAAD, Patriot and ship-based interceptors — to protect forces and allies from ballistic missile threats across the Middle East.
These systems are technically capable, but interceptor inventories are finite.
During the June 2025 Iran-Israel missile exchange, U.S. forces reportedly fired more than 150 THAAD interceptors — roughly a quarter of the total the Pentagon had funded to date, according to defense analysts.
The economics also highlight the imbalance: open-source estimates suggest Iranian short-range ballistic missiles can cost in the low hundreds of thousands of dollars apiece, while advanced U.S. interceptors such as THAAD run roughly $12 million or more per missile.
Precise inventory levels are classified. But experts who track Pentagon procurement data warn that replenishing advanced interceptors can take years, meaning a prolonged, high-intensity missile exchange could strain stockpiles even if U.S. defenses remain effective.
Missile program complicates negotiations
The ballistic missile issue has also emerged as a key fault line in ongoing diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said Iran’s refusal to negotiate limits on its ballistic missile program is “a big problem,” signaling that the administration views the arsenal as central to long-term regional security.
While current negotiations are focused primarily on Iran’s nuclear program and uranium enrichment activities, U.S. officials have argued that delivery systems — including ballistic missiles — cannot be separated from concerns about a potential nuclear weapon.
Iranian officials, however, have insisted their missile program is defensive in nature and not subject to negotiation as part of nuclear-focused talks.
As diplomacy continues, the strategic reality remains clear: Iran cannot currently strike the U.S. homeland with a ballistic missile. But U.S. forces across the Middle East remain within range of Tehran’s existing arsenal — and future capabilities remain a subject of intelligence concern.
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