The most advanced U.S. aircraft carrier is expected to reach the waters off Venezuela in days, a flex of American military power not seen in Latin America for generations.
Experts disagree on the possibility that American warplanes will catapult off the USS Gerald R. Ford to bomb targets inside Venezuela and further pressure authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro to step down. Still, whether it may serve that purpose or only patrols the Caribbean as the U.S. blows up boats it accuses of trafficking drugs, the presence of the 100,000-ton warship alone is sending a message.
“This is the anchor of what it means to have U.S. military power once again in Latin America,” said Elizabeth Dickinson, the International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for the Andes region. “And it has raised a lot of anxieties in Venezuela but also throughout the region. I think everyone is watching this with sort of bated breath to see just how willing the U.S. is to really use military force.”
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The Ford’s impending arrival is a major moment in the Trump administration’s campaign in South America, which it describes as a counterdrug operation. It escalates the already massive buildup of military firepower in the region, with added pressure from bomber training runs near the Venezuelan coast, CIA operations that have been publicly authorized inside the country and boat strikes in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific Ocean that have killed over 75 people.
The U.S. has long used aircraft carriers as tools of deterrence to pressure and influence other nations, often without employing any force at all. They carry thousands of sailors and dozens of warplanes that can strike targets deep inside another country.
Trump administration says it’s focused on fighting drug trafficking
Secretary of State Marco Rubio insists that President Donald Trump is focused on stopping drugs from entering the U.S. by combatting “organized criminal narcoterrorists.”
“That’s what he’s authorized. That’s what the military’s doing. That’s why our assets are there,” he told reporters Wednesday after meeting his counterparts from the Group of Seven democracies in Canada.
But Rubio also says the U.S. doesn’t recognize Maduro, who was widely accused of stealing last year’s election, as the leader of Venezuela and called the government a “transshipment organization” that openly cooperates with those trafficking drugs toward the U.S.
Some experts say deploying the Ford appears to be geared more toward a government change in Venezuela than drug trafficking.
“There’s nothing that an aircraft carrier brings that is useful for combating the drug trade,” Dickinson said. “I think it’s clearly a message that is much more geared toward pressuring Caracas.”
Bryan Clark, a former Navy submariner and defense analyst at the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank, said the Trump administration would not have deployed the Ford “if they didn’t intend to use it.”
“I think this administration is very open to using military force to accomplish particular objectives,” Clark said. “I think they’re going to want to actually do some military operations unless Maduro steps down in the next month or so.”
After Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth briefed lawmakers last week, Rep. Jim Himes, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said they gave no indication that the strikes would be stopping but also indicated that they were targeting cocaine traffickers and not overtly intending to overthrow Maduro.
Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, expects U.S. warships to launch missiles from other ships before launching any American warplanes. He said Venezuela has relatively sophisticated missile defense systems from Russia that could put American pilots at risk.
“Because they have so many systems, some are relatively new, and all are mobile, we probably wouldn’t get them all,” Cancian said. “So there’s some risk that we could lose some aircraft.”
Venezuela mobilizes for possible attack
Venezuela’s government this week touted a “massive” mobilization of troops and civilians to defend against possible U.S. attacks. Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López said in a statement that “land, air, naval, riverine, and missile assets” would be part of a two-day readiness effort “to confront imperialist threats.”
State television showed members of the military, police and militias standing in formations across the country. Padrino also delivered remarks, broadcast on state television, standing by a surface-to-air missile system in a military base in the capital, Caracas.
Maduro, who faces charges of narcoterrorism in the U.S., has insisted the Trump administration’s intentions are to force him from power. Venezuela’s U.S.-backed political opposition has renewed its promise of an imminent government change.
David Smilde, a Tulane University professor who has studied Venezuela for more than 30 years, said the U.S. military does not have enough manpower in the region, even with the aircraft carrier, for an invasion.
“It’s consistent with this desire to demonstrate credible force, which they had already,” Smilde said of the carrier. “It doesn’t change the equation. I don’t think that the fact that it is there means that they necessarily have to strike. It just means that Trump and Hegseth have not forgotten about this, and they are still onboard in trying to generate a regime change through a show of force.”
Smilde said Venezuela’s political opposition has long told U.S. officials that “just a credible threat of force” would cause Maduro’s government to crumble. For Trump, he said, that would be the best outcome of this operation.
Pushback on intelligence
The U.S. actions have faced pushback in the region, in Congress and among rights organizations. However, Senate Republicans voted last week to reject legislation that would have put a check on Trump’s ability to launch an attack against Venezuela.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro, who was recently hit with U.S. sanctions over allegations of aiding the drug trade, on Tuesday announced he was cutting off intelligence sharing with the longtime North American ally until the strikes stop. But he softened his stance the following day, saying the sharing would continue as long as agencies guarantee it won’t be used in actions that jeopardize human rights.
Rubio pushed back on reports that the United Kingdom has halted some intelligence sharing in the region over concerns about the strikes, saying U.S. assets in the region provide such information.
The U.S. is not “asking anyone to help us with what we’re doing — in any realm. And that includes the military,” he said.
Mexico, however, is stepping up its cooperation with the U.S. in targeting drug trafficking. President Claudia Sheinbaum said Thursday that her administration made an agreement with the U.S. for Mexico’s navy to intercept boats in international waters near Mexico that the U.S. alleges are carrying drugs to avoid any more strikes off its coast.
‘A use-it-or-lose-it kind of situation’
The Ford, originally deployed to the Mediterranean Sea, was within the U.S. Southern Command region but not yet in the Caribbean. The carrier was in the mid-Atlantic on Thursday, a defense official who wasn’t authorized to discuss the matter said on condition of anonymity.
Clark said sending the Ford to South America would have a minimal impact on costs and readiness in the short term because it still has a month or two left on its regularly scheduled deployment.
Cancian, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the U.S. can’t afford to have the Ford “dawdling around the Caribbean” for long. It’s such a powerful military asset that it may be needed elsewhere, such as the Middle East.
“It’s a use-it-or-lose-it kind of situation,” he said.
Garcia Cano reported from Caracas, Venezuela.
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