There is serious consternation among House conservatives about the updated budget framework the Senate approved early Saturday morning for the tax cut and spending cut package.
Fox is told there are at least 5-10 House Republicans who cannot support this plan. The reason is that the measure doesn’t cut nearly enough spending to satisfy conservatives.
President Trump has signaled that he wants the House to accept the Senate’s blueprint. But these House conservatives are adamantly against it. We’ll see if they fold.
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Fox asked one archconservative if pressure by President Trump would get them to come around. Fox was told they wouldn’t do so this time.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has set Wednesday as the day for the House to vote on the new framework. Fox is told that the House wants to do it Wednesday – in case GOP leaders need to take a mulligan and try again later in the week.
It’s about the math.
Here’s the current House breakdown:
433 members. 220 Republicans. 213 Democrats.
That means Republicans can only lose three votes and still pass a bill if all House Members cast ballots.
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Here’s why the framework is so important:
The House and Senate must be on the same page and adopt the same budget blueprint in order for the Senate to use a process called “budget reconciliation” to avoid a filibuster. A filibuster would kill the bill because Republicans lack 60 yeas to break a filibuster in the Senate. So they have to use budget reconciliation. The House and Senate cannot delve into the guts of the “big, beautiful bill” until they both adopt the same budget framework. Otherwise, they are dead in the water.
The Senate prepped a measure which didn’t include cuts as deep as demanded by the House for a reason. First, such deep cuts would never command the necessary votes to pass the bill in the Senate. Secondly, Senate Republicans are bound by special budget rules. Thus, their cuts can’t be as deep. However, Senate GOP sources have repeatedly told Fox that they are trying to establish a “floor” for cuts. Not a “ceiling.”
The budget framework already has a fraught legislative history.
The Senate approved its initial blueprint in February. The House approved a different framework a week later. But they were different documents.
So, the Senate approved yet another version over the weekend. The House now needs to align with the Senate – or approve something different.
Either way, the House and Senate are not on the same page. And they cannot begin dealing with the actual bill until they are. After two “vote-a-ramas” in the Senate (where senators vote round-the-clock for hours on a budget measure), some Senate GOPers have indicated that the Senate would not do a third vote-a-rama. Moreover, Johnson has set a deadline of Memorial Day to pass the plan.
One item expected to be included in the package: a debt ceiling increase. The Senate budget package hiked the debt ceiling by $5 trillion. Considering volatility in the markets and overall economic uncertainty, there is concern that Congress may need to address the debt ceiling sooner rather than later. The current estimation is that lawmakers have until summertime to address the debt ceiling. But there could be problems if Congress can’t greenlight any bill to address the debt ceiling – this one or something else.
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