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I just returned from China, where I was the Republican member on the first House delegation to visit since 2019.
Our bipartisan group met with Premier Li Qiang and senior officials to press for dialogue on military-to-military communication, trade, nuclear proliferation and fentanyl.
From the moment I landed, the atmosphere carried unmistakable echoes of the Cold War. The security, the suspicion, the ideological rigidity — it all felt like a throwback to the Soviet Union of the 1980s.
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But, unlike the stagnant Soviet Union of the 1980s, China is still rising. History teaches that when a growing power collides with an established one, the risk of conflict grows. My former Harvard professor, Graham Allison, calls this the “Thucydides Trap” — referring to the military conflict the Greek historian chronicled between established Sparta and rising Athens. Sparta won, but at devastating cost.
Can America steer clear of war with China while still defending U.S. interests and values? After my visit, I am convinced we can, but only if we act with clarity, strength and unity.
From candid exchanges in Beijing and with regional partners, five insights emerged.
First, increased dialogue is not indulgence; it is insurance against miscalculation. The last House delegation visited China six years ago. That gap should never happen again. Members of Congress must continue to visit Taiwan, but also return regularly to Beijing. High-level military hotlines need to be reestablished so an incident in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea does not spiral out of control.
Second, China is strong, but brittle. Hyper-competitive markets and state speed turn ideas into products fast. China runs six of the world’s ten largest ports and spends nearly 3% of GDP on basic research, while universities produce two million STEM bachelor’s degrees a year. Since 2020, China’s nuclear arsenal has tripled in size.
But, the same one-party control that can move resources quickly also magnifies mistakes — from zero-COVID whiplash to an overbuilt property sector and total debt estimated above 300% of GDP. A population that peaked in 2023 is already shrinking. Abroad, “wolf-warrior” diplomacy reads as bullying, and China’s decision to align with Russia, Iran and N. Korea undercuts influence with neighbors and Europe. Most significantly, the Chinese Communist Party’s need to implement Orwellian surveillance of its citizens and brutally snuff out expression by dissidents and religious minorities shows the insecurity of its leadership.
Third, we must fortify regional partnerships. America’s true advantage isn’t only aircraft carriers — it’s allies who choose to stand with us. The combined GDP of the United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines and India exceeds $40 trillion and represents more than two billion people. None of these nations wants to live under Beijing’s thumb. Building a network of alliances is our strongest deterrent in Asia.
Fourth, pursue areas of mutual US-Chinese interest — but, with unrelenting clarity. Nearly 100,000 Americans die each year from fentanyl overdoses, and many chemical precursors originate in China. China has its own historic and current problems with drugs. If Beijing is serious about a more stable relationship, this is a litmus test: act decisively against precursor exports. Nuclear proliferation is another area where China has cooperated in the past and should again. Southeast Asian scam hubs exploit Chinese and American families alike. Joint progress in these areas can build trust that leads to understanding.
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Fifth, renew American strength at home. We lead China today, but whether we will be able to compete with China in the years to come in areas like AI, nuclear energy and drone warfare capability will largely depend upon America fixing self-inflicted regulatory and governance problems at home. That means cutting through red tape, reining in endless litigation that delays critical infrastructure for decades and fixing our military procurement cycle. Most importantly, America’s growing national debt crisis must be seen through the lens of national security.
The best way to avoid war with China is to prepare so thoroughly — with our allies, our economy and our resolve — that acts of aggression become unwinnable and thus unnecessary.
This is not about encirclement or suppression. It is about preserving liberty, deterring coercion and keeping the peace. During the Cold War, America’s combination of strength, alliances and confidence in our values carried the day. With China, we face not a Cold War, but a hard peace, where we must work with global partners to channel rising ambitions into peaceful outcomes.
May future Congressional delegations to Beijing be large and frequent.
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