Chinese and Russian submarines have conducted a joint patrol, in the latest step in a growing Sino-Russian partnership.
While the exercise only involved two subs, the warning was clear: America should contemplate the prospect of confronting a China-Russia alliance.
“I’d say this is simply an effort at deterrence,” Lyle Goldstein, director of the Asia Program at the Defense Priorities think tank in Washington, told Defense News. “While it is hard to conceive of a scenario where they would embark on a war with the West simultaneously, they may benefit from some impression that could be the case.”
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Beijing and Moscow are portraying this as a milestone in military cooperation. A Chinese military expert told China’s Global Times newspaper that “the first joint submarine patrol indicated a high level of strategic mutual trust between China and Russia. Having submarines keeping in contact requires not only higher technical expertise but also more in-depth exchanges.”
The patrol comprised the Russian submarine Volkhov and a Chinese sub, accompanied by two Russian surface ships: the corvette Gromkiy and a submarine rescue vessel. They sailed in August through the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan, following a joint China-Russia anti-submarine exercise earlier that month, which included surface ships and aircraft. The Volkhov traveled 2,000 miles before terminating its voyage at Vladivostok, according to Russian newspaper Izvestia.
The Russian and Chinese boats were both Kilo-class, a 1970s Soviet diesel electric design known for being acoustically quiet.
“It’s a logical choice, since China imported this type of submarine from Russia, so they have very similar capabilities and could make easy exercise partners,” said Goldstein, whose new book on the China-Russia naval alliance will be published in January.
What was more significant was what China and Russia chose not to do for the exercise: commit their nuclear-powered submarines, perhaps out of reluctance to reveal the capabilities of advanced warships to an ally that could be a future rival.
“So far, China and Russia are not cooperating — at least openly — in wielding nuclear-powered submarines,” Goldstein said.
Indeed, the current bromance between China and Russia is practical rather than affectionate. Though the two nations were allies in the 1950s, Chinese and Russian troops battled each other in border clashes in 1969, Soviet leaders once pondered a nuclear strike against China and the Kremlin knows that China considers parts of the Russian Far East to be stolen Chinese territory.
Whatever the reason, the ostensible allies only paired up aging and more or less identical warships.
“Neither side gave up anything the other participant didn’t already know by using Kilos,” Richard Moss, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College’s Russian Maritime Studies Institute, told Defense News.
While the Chinese and Russian armed forces share a common lineage in Soviet military thought and equipment, that doesn’t guarantee integration during joint exercises.
“The level of interaction does not remotely approximate what the U.S. and its allies, such as NATO countries, do on a regular basis,” noted Moss, who said he was speaking in a personal capacity.
Nonetheless, the sub patrol is only the latest in a series of highly public displays of Sino-Russian military cooperation. In 2019, the two nations began sporadic bomber patrols, including a 2024 flight by four Chinese and Russian bombers that flew near Alaska. 2021 saw the onset of annual joint patrols by surface ships. There have also been joint land exercises such as the Zapad/Interaction wargame in 2021.
“I think this [the sub patrol] is quite consistent with the overall pattern,” said Goldstein. “It is repetitive, consistent, quite small in scale, and often features a new dimension, whether technological or geographical.”
Goldstein floats an intriguing possibility: The sub patrol was a warning shot against AUKUS, the Australia-U.K.-U.S. agreement that calls for Australia to acquire nuclear submarines with the help of America and Britain, and U.S. subs operating out of Australian bases.
“I have seen substantial evidence that Chinese naval strategists are tracking AUKUS developments extremely closely and, moreover, that their threat anxiety about this program is acute,” Goldstein said. “I have also seen Chinese strategists discussing how enhanced China-Russia cooperation in undersea warfare is a logical counter to AUKUS.”
A key indicator of the China-Russia relationship will be that their nuclear submarines operate together.
“If they do take that major step in the future, it could indicate a tighter and more worrisome development, as that could herald more high-tech sharing on the most cutting-edge warfighting platforms,” said Goldstein.
He argues against overreacting to these joint patrols.
“Ever greater deployments of U.S. forces, and ever more intense exercising with allies, often goes beyond our intention and provokes a counter-reaction — and this can be seen in the budding China-Russia quasi-alliance.”
How deep that alliance is remains to be seen.
“Both sides are somewhat chastened by the history of the Sino-Soviet dispute,” Goldstein said. “They seem to realize that there are dangers in being too close, and also in being too dependent on one another. Now, there is a certain maturity in the relationship, wherein it is fully realized that their interests will not always be identical.”
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