Battle for governor in closely watched election may be headed for a photo finish

With the November election just 15 days out, the Republican nominee in one of the nation’s only two races for governor this year is feeling confident.

“The energy across the state is electric. The reception in minority communities has been great, and on being endorsed by prominent Democrats, that tells you all you need to know in terms of the people of New Jersey wanting change. And that’s what this election is all about. Change,” Jack Ciattarelli said this weekend in an interview on “Fox News Sunday.”

Ciattarelli, who’s making his third straight run for Garden State governor and who nearly upset Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy four years ago, has good reason to be optimistic he can pull off victory in blue-leaning New Jersey.

In a state where registered Democrats still outnumber Republicans despite a GOP surge in registration this decade, three public opinion polls released last week — from Fox News, Quinnipiac University, and Fairleigh Dickinson University — indicated Ciattarelli narrowing the gap with Democratic gubernatorial nominee Rep. Mikie Sherrill in the race to succeed the term-limited Murphy.

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The Fox News poll conducted Oct. 10 – 14, put Sherrill at 50% support among likely voters, with Ciattarelli at 45%. Sherrill’s 5-point advantage was down from an 8-point lead in Fox News’ September survey in New Jersey.

New Jersey and Virginia are the only two states to hold gubernatorial showdowns in the year after a presidential election, and the contests traditionally grab outsized attention and are viewed as political barometers ahead of the following year’s midterm elections.

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And this year, they’re being viewed, in part, as ballot-box referendums on President Donald Trump’s unprecedented and combustible second-term agenda.

While Democrats have long dominated federal and state legislative elections in blue-leaning New Jersey, Republicans are very competitive in gubernatorial contests, winning five out of the past 10 elections.

And Trump made major gains in New Jersey in last year’s presidential election, losing the state by only six percentage points, a major improvement over his 16-point deficit four years earlier.

Ciattarelli, interviewed by Fox News Digital last week in Bayonne, New Jersey, noted that he “made big gains” in his 2021 showing “in Hudson County and Passaic County,” two long-time Democratic Party strongholds.

“And the President did very, very well in ’24 in those very same counties. And if you take a look at who’s been endorsing me, including some very prominent Democrats here in Hudson County, people want change,” Ciattarelli emphasized.

But Ciattarelli is also aiming to energize Republican base voters in what’s likely to be a low-turnout election.

Multiple sources confirmed to Fox News that Trump will hold a tele-rally with Ciattarelli ahead of Election Day. Trump’s teaming up with Ciattarelli may help energize MAGA supporters, many of whom are low propensity voters who often skip casting ballots in non-presidential election years.

And last week, Ciattarelli was joined at a jam-packed diner stop in Saddle Brook, New Jersey, by Vivek Ramaswamy, the MAGA rockstar who is running for governor next year in his home state of Ohio.

Ramaswamy, the multimillionaire biotech entrepreneur and conservative commentator who pushed an “America First 2.0” platform as he ran for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination before ending his bid and becoming one of Trump’s top supporters and surrogates, told Fox News Digital that a Ciattarelli win this year would “set the table for even bigger and more decisive victories, hopefully in places like Ohio next year.”

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Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin, commenting on why Republicans feel bullish about the New Jersey showdown, raised concerns.

“New Jersey is the best place, probably, for Donald Trump to actually stop the Democratic momentum — or at least minimize the Democratic momentum that we’ve seen throughout this year,” Martin said in a Politico interview. 

But the Democratic Governors Association (DGA) forecasts a Sherrill victory in two weeks.

“As numerous polls show her holding a strong lead and earning more than 50% of the vote, Mikie Sherrill is rising to meet the moment in this incredibly competitive race,” DGA Spokesperson Izzi Levy told Fox News. “It’s clear that Mikie has the momentum, and that New Jersey voters are all-in to reject Ciattarelli for a third time this November.”

Sherrill had plenty of company on the campaign trail this weekend from major Democratic Party surrogates, including two of the biggest names in the party — Govs. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Wes Moore of Maryland.

“From Maryland to New Jersey, we’re united with one goal – making sure every voice is heard at the ballot box,” Moore wrote on social medial. “Proud to stand with @MikieSherrill and community members in Newark to get out the vote. Let’s finish strong this November!”

And former President Barack Obama endorsed Sherrill and starred in a new ad for the party’s nominee.

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While Trump isn’t on the ballot, he’s loomed large over the New Jersey gubernatorial election.

At the second and final debate two weeks ago, Sherrill charged that her GOP rival had “shown zero signs of standing up to this president. In fact, the president himself called Jack 100% MAGA, and he’s shown every sign of being that.”

Asked whether he considered himself part of the MAGA movement, Ciattarelli said he was “part of a New Jersey movement.”

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When asked to grade the president’s performance so far during his second term, Ciattarelli said, “I’d certainly give the president an A. I think he’s right about everything that he’s doing.”

“I think that tells us all we need to know about who Jack Ciattarelli’s supporting. I give him an F right now,” Sherrill responded, as she pointed to New Jersey’s high cost of living.

The race in New Jersey was rocked a couple of weeks ago by a report that the National Personnel Records Center, which is a branch of the National Archives and Records Administration, mistakenly released Sherrill’s improperly redacted military personnel files, which included private information like her Social Security number, to a Ciattarelli ally. 

But Sherrill’s military records indicated that the United States Naval Academy blocked her from taking part in her 1994 graduation amid a cheating scandal.

The showdown was jolted again two weeks ago after Sherrill’s allegations that Ciattarelli was “complicit” with pharmaceutical companies in the opioid deaths of tens of thousands of New Jerseyans, as she pointed to the medical publishing company he owned that pushed content promoting the use of opioids as a low-risk treatment for chronic pain.

Last week, Trump set off a political hand grenade in the race, as he “terminated” billions of federal dollars for the Gateway Project, which is funding a new train tunnel under the Hudson River connecting New Jersey and New York.

Sherrill, holding a news conference Thursday at a major commuter rail station just a few miles from the site of the tunnels in one of the busiest train corridors in the nation, called the project “critical” as she took aim at Trump and Ciattarelli.

“I’m fighting for the people of New Jersey. He’s fighting to excuse Trump. It’s unacceptable,” Sherrill charged.

New Jersey traditionally elects a governor from the party out of power in the White House, which this year favors the Democrats.

But Garden State voters haven’t elected a governor from the same party in three straight elections in over a half century, which would favor the Republicans.

One of those political trends will be busted in next month’s election.